{
  "code_sha256": {
    "configs/scenarios/iceland_2009.json": "58d7e032331d9b3e0b27fb518f5f62098f40e72af2c5354cf66f9bd9bdb49e15",
    "requirements.lock": "7d94120777dfd5a7684a0273e4636882611ec9003757269ebcafe67984f28724",
    "src/value_education/__init__.py": "1a16ffc677b8d192fa6af8cfa0ab868fb75fd487274e32a8ec15a8046bc9c447",
    "src/value_education/models/__init__.py": "52e369fcfa8c670f6a7e2dcffed0349b986ca24385dc1ec39fc1763b462cf141",
    "src/value_education/models/baseline.py": "111a0d6827a83eb0956c98300fe15a30890df24390c975175bde92de9f5896df",
    "src/value_education/models/checks.py": "552dbee5e96c4d99b6bb0e6f9badd6e6a1c9d8f9eeaa4e22943ab5ed0c649e64",
    "src/value_education/models/cohorts.py": "438dcbcb673ae423d9dcf5a573fa4605704a61596ffdf7711d3b65dc9e58f1e7",
    "src/value_education/models/config.py": "d484801a15c5ccd1602c4d39be57f29ff2760b1446af133763a53ac9065d8e89",
    "src/value_education/models/diagnostic_checks.py": "977336f1bfa46370ca093dc1bab1dd1bc5a7f1883abc9049b010e421f6854a3d",
    "src/value_education/models/diagnostics.py": "a27694606299c9f68f0ab53ec640bdb76503486687d71b51f1b2538200b59c50",
    "src/value_education/models/discount.py": "12d35493eb2ee723c63c895244d895e873a1b7b397c1fc4482aac3a78632dd92",
    "src/value_education/models/inputs.py": "96a0bf829a249bbb935890edda0ea61b9607b607549144b93812459b4a22781d",
    "src/value_education/models/methods.py": "d77bca1a643ac8e109a59f239b57550a4a1d5ba1fdce9ebc153b2ddd2bb64ab4",
    "src/value_education/models/results.py": "76c385be06570b6370dee015dbfc6714df524c65a76654b8a72d0af19a040e9a",
    "src/value_education/models/review.py": "673236cd1c3953df272b6768e542e163d449a3652c50d9a787e232ceacac5646",
    "src/value_education/models/scenario_overlay.py": "8bb525dfaed7c8b0e8efea2b48c91ef52479ce91654cbcc8ffcf1e18b1242d4e",
    "src/value_education/models/valuation.py": "56042af682ce00c14af74c9380968c07008b7318d9ee15408305a3f774d2d607",
    "src/value_education/shadow_check.py": "f40983c963e803e1642e1662b958de2a8f27b0f96833b3ef2e4981e0aa6e8023",
    "src/value_education/snapshot.py": "e6409854e14c0ce54d199ed8d5258d412f5af514ff6d3e8f99ba4c526243003f"
  },
  "day_count_convention": "Actual/Actual ISDA-style; start inclusive, end exclusive",
  "first_flow_year": 2026,
  "gdp_price_anchor_year": 2025,
  "git_commit": "b80c51c7e1705be0829d0029f30eecb81db566e9",
  "last_flow_year": 2085,
  "method_identifier": "shared",
  "methodology_version": "phase3a.1",
  "model_configuration_hash": "b3088cd486b0e842a1eeb747bfe09d33c5db3f27bc5cb666f31d37329fb10355",
  "price_convention": "real ISK in 2020 chain-linked prices; 2025 CPI purchasing-power-equivalent ISK",
  "publication_status": "release candidate; independent review required; not approved for publication",
  "result_release_id": "pisa2025_release_candidate_v2_2026-09-09",
  "runtime_versions": {
    "numpy": "2.5.3",
    "pandas": "2.3.3",
    "pyarrow": "21.0.0",
    "python": "3.12.3"
  },
  "scenario_identifier": "all",
  "settings": {
    "anchor_year": 2025,
    "baseline_quality": "constant frozen 2025 overall score; other controls held common",
    "canonical_csv": "UTF-8 LF, stable rows, 17 significant float digits, round-trip reader",
    "diagnostics": [
      "legacy_recurrence_diagnostic",
      "calendar_2025_employment_weights",
      "productivity_long_run_rule_of_thumb",
      "productivity_full_16_65_edm2022_diagnostic",
      "gdp_bridge_immediate_oecd_2029",
      "synthetic_permanent_10_point_productivity_timing"
    ],
    "discount": {
      "compounding": "effective annual, as specified by owner",
      "curves": [
        "cbi_flat_zero_10",
        "cbi_flat_forward_5_10"
      ],
      "day_count_algorithm": "split [valuation date, flow date) at January 1; segment days / days in segment calendar year",
      "day_count_convention": "Actual/Actual ISDA-style; start inclusive, end exclusive",
      "interpolation": "linear in log discount factors",
      "knots_years": [
        3,
        5,
        10
      ],
      "payment": "December 31 of each flow year",
      "primary_curve": "cbi_flat_zero_10",
      "primary_rationale": "conservative extrapolation from last officially published zero-rate maturity",
      "quote_selection": "latest common frozen date on or before release date",
      "quote_type": "indexed zero coupon",
      "sensitivity_curve": "cbi_flat_forward_5_10",
      "tail_warning_threshold_percent": 5.0,
      "valuation_date": "2026-09-07"
    },
    "first_adult_effect_year": 2027,
    "first_flow_year": 2026,
    "first_improved_tested_cohort": 2026,
    "full_productivity_diagnostic": {
      "ages": [
        16,
        65
      ],
      "composition_tail": "freeze final available age composition after 2074; diagnostic approximation",
      "eta": 2.838,
      "final_composition_year": 2074,
      "fully_affected_from": 2076,
      "method_identifier": "productivity_full_16_65_edm2022_diagnostic",
      "output_closure": "zY=zM",
      "psi": 0.349,
      "rho": -0.316,
      "score_elasticities": [
        [
          16,
          49,
          0.278
        ],
        [
          50,
          59,
          0.269
        ],
        [
          60,
          65,
          0.263
        ]
      ],
      "weights": "MAN09010 median total-sex single ages, normalized within 16..65 each year"
    },
    "gdp_bridge_diagnostic": "OECD GDPVTRD_CAP annual growth starts in 2029; other inputs unchanged",
    "gdp_price_anchor_year": 2025,
    "growth": {
      "ages": [
        16,
        74
      ],
      "beta_pp_per_sd": 1.3,
      "employment_sensitivity_window": "2025M01_2025M12",
      "employment_window": "2025M08_2026M07",
      "method_identifier": "growth_beta_1_3",
      "points_per_sd": 100,
      "recurrence": "additive annual GDP-per-capita growth",
      "within_bin_allocation": "uniform single-age employed headcounts"
    },
    "last_flow_year": 2085,
    "macro": {
      "actual_anchor": "2025 real aggregate GDP / published annual mean population",
      "bridge_endpoint_year": 2032,
      "bridge_weights": [
        0.25,
        0.5,
        0.75
      ],
      "bridge_years": [
        2029,
        2030,
        2031
      ],
      "forecast_measure": "CBI aggregate real GDP growth",
      "forecast_years": [
        2026,
        2027,
        2028
      ],
      "tail": "OECD BAU1 GDPVTRD_CAP annual growth only, 2032..2085"
    },
    "market_valuation_date": "2026-09-07",
    "methodology_version": "phase3a.1",
    "native_price_convention": "real ISK in 2020 chain-linked prices",
    "number_of_flows": 60,
    "owner_authorization": "Phase 3A historical scenario addition, 2026-09-09",
    "population": {
      "annual_mean": "retain frozen means through 2073; adjacent January levels thereafter",
      "january_actual_2026": 394324,
      "january_tail_anchor_year": 2074,
      "tail": "OECD BAU1 POPS annual growth applied to January population, 2075..2086"
    },
    "productivity": {
      "ages": [
        16,
        39
      ],
      "beta_q": 0.278,
      "eta": 2.359,
      "method_identifier": "productivity_marginal_edm2022",
      "output_closure": "zY=zM; common capital/output ratio, employment and composition",
      "post_2074": "affected share = 1; no extrapolated age counts",
      "psi": 1.426,
      "quantity_intercept_historical_cohorts": "held identical; cancel in marginal log stock",
      "rho": -0.049,
      "source": "a1046e2e-en: Table 4 col 5 (PDF14); eq4 (PDF15); Table 6 col1 (PDF21)",
      "weights": "MAN09010 median total-sex single ages, normalized within 16..39"
    },
    "publication_status": "release candidate; independent review required; not approved for publication",
    "release_date": "2026-09-09",
    "reporting_conversion": "mean(CPI 2025M01..M12) / mean(CPI 2020M01..M12)",
    "reporting_price_convention": "2025 CPI purchasing-power-equivalent ISK",
    "result_release_id": "pisa2025_release_candidate_v2_2026-09-09",
    "scenario_identifiers": [
      "oecd_2025",
      "iceland_2012",
      "nordic_2025",
      "iceland_2009"
    ],
    "scenario_input": "frozen three-scenario CSV plus historical 2009 model overlay; overall_mean",
    "scenario_overlay": {
      "baseline_year": 2025,
      "scenario_identifier": "iceland_2009",
      "scenario_label": "Return to Iceland's 2009 performance",
      "scenario_label_is": "Aftur á árangur ársins 2009",
      "source_table": "processed/pisa_scores.csv",
      "statistic": "mean_score",
      "student_group": "all_students",
      "subject_weights": {
        "mathematics": 1,
        "reading": 1,
        "science": 1
      },
      "target_members": [
        "ISL"
      ],
      "target_method": "single_country_historical_value",
      "target_year": 2009
    },
    "schema_version": 1,
    "source_release_id": "pisa2025_2026-09-09",
    "source_release_seal_hash": "8a7544e9f14dd6d6343475aee6b83075ff94938855c8bb994788e897a11165a1",
    "target_achievement": "full target for all tested cohorts from 2026 permanently",
    "tested_age": 15,
    "timing_diagnostic": {
      "baseline_score": "frozen Iceland 2025 overall_mean level",
      "comparison": "AED2024 Figure E1, printed p48 / PDF p49; qualitative only",
      "milestones": [
        2030,
        2040,
        2050,
        2060,
        2070,
        2076,
        2085
      ],
      "score_gap": 10
    }
  },
  "source_release_id": "pisa2025_2026-09-09",
  "source_release_seal_hash": "8a7544e9f14dd6d6343475aee6b83075ff94938855c8bb994788e897a11165a1",
  "units": "mixed; see table units",
  "valuation_date": "2026-09-07"
}